1 month after SBF's charges are initially resolved (i.e. after the conclusion of SBF's trial including sentencing, or after charges are dropped, etc; not counting any appeals process), I will create a poll asking participants: "What do you believe was the probability that SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse?" The poll will run for 1 month. Resolves to the average (mean) poll response.
Notes
Poll responses must be honest. Do not attempt to manipulate the poll - if I suspect manipulation then I reserve the right to restrict the poll to reputable Manifold users or resolve N/A.
I am aware that this poll would likely be highly subject to selection bias. I may consider some ideas to mitigate this in another variant of this question; let me know if you have suggestions.
Poll means a literal poll where you answer with a probability, it does not mean a market.
Related
You can respond to the current version of the poll now: https://forms.gle/5yLeSZhNfs7fE5Vq6
This will be used to resolve the linked market below, there will be another poll for this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ20 | |
| 2 | Ṁ16 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
People are also trading
It's been one month since the trial and sentencing. The poll is open! Please respond here: https://forms.gle/SCDmcxTt9qRdzQ6R9
The trial and sentencing have just concluded. The poll will open in 1 month.
Reminder: As per description, this question is based on a poll "after the conclusion of SBF's trial including sentencing... not counting any appeals process", which is currently set for March 2024.
(Funny that I specified both of those details, unlike some of the other SBF trial markets, even though it matters much less here than on the markets about when the trial ends! Apparently I should have asked that question too.)