How much will we believe SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse after his trial? [Poll, resolves to avg %]
resolved Jun 3
Resolved as

1 month after SBF's charges are initially resolved (i.e. after the conclusion of SBF's trial including sentencing, or after charges are dropped, etc; not counting any appeals process), I will create a poll asking participants: "What do you believe was the probability that SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse?" The poll will run for 1 month. Resolves to the average (mean) poll response.


  • Poll responses must be honest. Do not attempt to manipulate the poll - if I suspect manipulation then I reserve the right to restrict the poll to reputable Manifold users or resolve N/A.

  • I am aware that this poll would likely be highly subject to selection bias. I may consider some ideas to mitigate this in another variant of this question; let me know if you have suggestions.

  • Poll means a literal poll where you answer with a probability, it does not mean a market.


You can respond to the current version of the poll now:

This will be used to resolve the linked market below, there will be another poll for this market.

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It's been one month since the trial and sentencing. The poll is open! Please respond here:

Reminder to submit your responses!

I realized I forgot to set an end date for the poll. We'll say end of day May 28 (Pacific time), 2 weeks after I posted the poll.

Resolves to 99%, the mean poll response.

The trial and sentencing have just concluded. The poll will open in 1 month.

Oops, edited - poll opens in 1 month.

predicted NO

Reminder: As per description, this question is based on a poll "after the conclusion of SBF's trial including sentencing... not counting any appeals process", which is currently set for March 2024.

(Funny that I specified both of those details, unlike some of the other SBF trial markets, even though it matters much less here than on the markets about when the trial ends! Apparently I should have asked that question too.)

The difference between these markets shows that we don’t think that we conserve expected evidence.

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