1 month after SBF's charges are initially resolved (i.e. after the conclusion of SBF's trial including sentencing, or after charges are dropped, etc; not counting any appeals process), I will create a poll asking participants: "What do you believe was the probability that SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse?" The poll will run for 1 month. Resolves to the average (mean) poll response.
Notes
Poll responses must be honest. Do not attempt to manipulate the poll - if I suspect manipulation then I reserve the right to restrict the poll to reputable Manifold users or resolve N/A.
I am aware that this poll would likely be highly subject to selection bias. I may consider some ideas to mitigate this in another variant of this question; let me know if you have suggestions.
Poll means a literal poll where you answer with a probability, it does not mean a market.
Related
You can respond to the current version of the poll now: https://forms.gle/5yLeSZhNfs7fE5Vq6
This will be used to resolve the linked market below, there will be another poll for this market.
Related questions
The trial and sentencing have just concluded. The poll will open in 1 month.
Reminder: As per description, this question is based on a poll "after the conclusion of SBF's trial including sentencing... not counting any appeals process", which is currently set for March 2024.
(Funny that I specified both of those details, unlike some of the other SBF trial markets, even though it matters much less here than on the markets about when the trial ends! Apparently I should have asked that question too.)