1 month after SBF's charges are initially resolved (i.e. after the conclusion of SBF's trial including sentencing, or after charges are dropped, etc; not counting any appeals process), I will create a poll asking participants: "What do you believe was the probability that SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse?" The poll will run for 1 month. Resolves to the average (mean) poll response.

Notes

• Poll responses must be honest. Do not attempt to manipulate the poll - if I suspect manipulation then I reserve the right to restrict the poll to reputable Manifold users or resolve N/A.

• I am aware that this poll would likely be highly subject to selection bias. I may consider some ideas to mitigate this in another variant of this question; let me know if you have suggestions.

• Poll means a literal poll where you answer with a probability, it does not mean a market.

Related

You can respond to the current version of the poll now: https://forms.gle/5yLeSZhNfs7fE5Vq6

This will be used to resolve the linked market below, there will be another poll for this market.