How far will the 5th Starship test get before exploding?
Sep 1
Clears the launch tower
Max Q
Booster most engines cut off (MECO)
Second stage engine start (SES)
Stage separation
Booster boostback burn startup
Booster boostback burn shutdown
Booster landing burn startup
Booster touchdown (hard or soft)
Second stage engine cutoff (SECO)
Second stage begins reentry (descends through 100km)
Second stage survives reentry (descends through 25km)
Second stage landing burn startup (at least 1/2 lit successfully)
Second stage touchdown (hard or soft)

Each option resolves YES if the next (5th) Starship full stack flight test completes that milestone without exploding, NO otherwise (i.e. if it explodes during or before completing that milestone).

Because the mission plan is not released yet, details below are a draft and subject to change. They will be finalized before the launch.

Criteria changes from prior markets:

  • 2/3 of engines must light to count as success, up from 1/2 previously. (Reflects higher expectations as launches have been successful, and the fact that I'm pretty sure 1/2 of engines is not enough to perform the desired burn)

  • Added details about whether a pre-launch explosion counts.

Examples and more detailed definitions:

  • This question refers to the next Starship full stack flight test which has a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude). So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.

  • "Exploding" here will include any Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly

  • The second stage and stage separation milestones only require the second stage not to explode. Similarly, the booster boostback/landing milestones only require the booster not to explode.

  • For this question, the test includes the official pre-launch countdown, and if it explodes during that time then all milestones resolve NO. (For IFT-4, the countdown began at 1 hour 15 minutes before launch.) If it explodes outside of the official countdown, then that does not count and the question resolves based on the next test, whenever that occurs. Holds count as part of the countdown. If the launch is scrubbed and rescheduled, then that period of time until the next countdown starts does not count.

  • If Starship reaches MaxQ but explodes 2 seconds later, MaxQ still resolves YES.

  • MECO/SECO are defined as when the engines are intentionally shut down - if the engines shutdown unintentionally that doesn't count.

  • If MECO is attempted but the engines fail to shut down, and the rocket explodes before they can successfully shut down, MECO resolves NO.

  • Note that Starship will be doing a hot staging - they will cut off most but not all of the booster engines, ignite the second stage engines, and then the stages separate. This is different from most other rockets!

  • Note that the planned MECO will have most engines cut off, not all.

  • Second stage engine start (SES) does not require stage separation to complete successfully, as long as the engines ignite successfully. At least 2/3 of the engines must ignite to count as a success.

  • Similarly, for each of the booster burn startup milestones, at least 2/3 of the engines that are supposed to ignite must ignite to count as a success.

  • For Second stage landing burn startup, at least two engines must ignite to count as a success. (For previous missions the plan has been to perform a 2-engine landing burn, but ignite 3 and then immediately shut 1 down, just for redundancy.)

  • For stage separation, if the second stage separates intact, that's a YES (even if e.g. the rocket starts spinning unrecoverably out of control, as long as it stays intact). If the engines light but the second stage explodes instead of separating, that's a NO. If the stages separate unintentionally, that's a NO.

  • Second stage touchdown resolves YES if Starship touches down anywhere in the planned ocean or continent (currently planned for the Indian ocean), and is intact at the moment it hits the surface, even if it is an uncontrolled crash. If it touches down elsewhere, that's a NO.

  • Similarly for booster touchdown, resolves YES if the booster (separated from the second stage) touches down anywhere in the planned ocean or continent and is intact at the moment it hits the surface.

  • The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.

Previous market for IFT4:

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Did you intend for this market to close already?

Nope, thanks. Extended!

Maybe add "successful booster catch"?

Also if they don't plan any of these, will they resolve N/A? Makes the most sense to me.
I'm also anticipating another payload door test.