Will there be Israeli troops in Lebanon on January 1st, 2025?
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Plus
69
Ṁ5674
Jan 1
73%
chance

Resolves YES if there are Israeli ground troops situated in Lebanese territory on January 1st, 2025. Resolves NO if there aren't any ground troops in Lebanon on that date.

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Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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What territory are you counting as part of Lebanon? Lebanon's claimed borders include land occupied by Israel for 40+ years.

@Multicore Do you have any suggestions? Were the Shebaa Farms the only territory contested by Lebanon prior to this year?

@jBosc I suggest picking some particular map of Lebanon, putting an image of it in the market description, and using that as the definition of "Lebanese territory" for this market.

It's more important that the market be unambiguous about what it is asking than for us to get to the bottom of every single territorial dispute.

Small scale ground war was happening for the past year. Over 70 raids with 20-40 troops spent days inside Lebanon

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-sends-troops-into-lebanon-escalating-fight-against-hezbollah-1dbcee03

Now it is about 1000+ prepping the way for over 40k

opened a Ṁ1 YES at 49% order

longer term version

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