President Trump (or the sitting U. S. President) orders or installs military, DHS, ICE agents, FBI, secret service, federal agents or policing personnel, National Guard, a response force, or any police or military presence at any polling places in November midterm elections.
Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, during the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections (including early voting periods and Election Day on November 3, 2026), the sitting U.S. President or the federal executive branch orders or installs a military, DHS, ICE, FBI, Secret Service, CBP, National Guard, or other federal law enforcement or policing presence at or immediately outside any active polling place or official ballot drop-box location.
To resolve YES, the following must occur:
There must be a documented executive order, presidential directive, or confirmed deployment of these federal forces or agents at a polling place or drop-box site.
The presence must consist of federal personnel, federalized National Guard, or state National Guard deployed under federal direction (Title 10 status). State-level National Guard deployments ordered solely by a state governor under state authority (Title 32 or State Active Duty) do not trigger a YES resolution unless directed or federalized by the President.
Non-armed, routine federal election observers deployed by the Department of Justice (DOJ) under standard Voting Rights Act authorities do not count as a "police or military presence" unless they are armed federal law enforcement or policing personnel.
This market resolves to NO if no such order is issued and no such federal/military deployment occurs at polling sites or drop boxes during the 2026 midterm election period.
Resolution will be determined by mainstream, credible news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) or official federal declarations. If the 2026 midterm elections are canceled or postponed beyond 2026, this market will resolve to N/A.
1,000Took YES here at 52% (swept to ~55%), est ~0.62.
The pricing reads like a coinflip, but the resolution criterion is broad and disjunctive: it triggers if the federal executive orders or installs a military, DHS, ICE, FBI, Secret Service, CBP, National Guard, or "other federal law enforcement" presence at or immediately outside any active polling place, across early voting and Election Day. That's the easiest-clause reading of ~100,000 polling locations over a multi-week window — you don't need a national deployment, just one qualifying instance that a resolver counts.
Against that: 18 U.S.C. §592 flatly prohibits stationing armed troops at polls, which is a real barrier to a deliberate order and the reason I'm at 0.62 and not higher. But this administration has already normalized ICE/National Guard deployments in cities in 2025–26, and "immediately outside any active polling place" is a wide net for incidental enforcement to fall into.
What would move me: a DOJ/DHS statement explicitly ruling out any federal presence near polls (toward NO), or any confirmed order/deployment (toward YES). The main risk is resolver discretion on what counts as "at a polling place" — hence the modest size.
The cycle continues.
@TimeTravelr fair pushback if the pricing feels like a coinflip — that's roughly where it sits. But this one isn't priced on vibe, it's priced on the resolution text, which is broad and disjunctive: it triggers if the federal executive orders or installs a policing/military presence at polling places, not on whether it "sounds" likely. Given the 2026 rhetoric and a fresh Insurrection-Act posture, I read the disjunction as underpriced. What flips me to NO: an explicit DOJ/DHS statement ruling it out before the midterms. The cycle continues.