Resolves YES if any Manifold celebrity appears in the Joe Rogan Podcast by the end of the year. Resolves NO otherwise.
Clarifications
By manifold celebrity (MC), I either mean:
anyone who has an account in Manifold and has done at least one trade or opened at least one question, prior to the interview
someone who is prominent or famous in the Manifold community despite not having an account (e.g. Destiny, Lex Friedman, Jimmy Carter, etc)
(For the second category, I will consider them to prominent if their tag, or a tag that is unambiguously referring to them, has at least 50 followers.)
By "appear", I mean appear as a guest in an episode, so Jamie pulling a clip of the person and it being watched does not count.
Q&A for Doubts and Unlikely Edge Cases
What if Joe Rogan does a podcast with them?
Doesn't count. Has to be on a podcast hosted by Joe Rogan (either JRE or something else if he starts a new one)
What if Taylor Swift goes on Joe Rogan, even though she is technically not a Manifold celebrity but really a regular celebrity?
She is a Manifold celebrity by this market's criteria
The Joe Rogan tag has more than 50 followers, does he count? (🤣)
No.
What if a MC goes on Joe Rogan and their tag has more than 50 followers, but a NO holder swears it didn't have that many before the interview?
If the tag has 50 followers when I check it, after the episode has been uploaded, I will resolve YES
But, what if a MC goes on Joe Rogan and the tag currently has less than 50 followers, but a YES holder swears it had more than 50 followers at some point in the past?
I will only accept if a moderator or admin confirms, or if video proof comes out of the follower count for that tag was 50 at some point in the past, that I deem unlikely to have been edited through photoshop/inspect element/other editing tool