This market will resolve to "YES" if by Dec 31 2023, Twitter will report a major incident (Degraded Performance, Partial Outage or Major Outage) of one of its systems.
Resolved by https://api.twitterstat.us/
Nov 18, 1:27pm: Will Twitter report a system incident/downtime by the end of 2023? → Will Twitter report an outage, system incident or downtime by the end of 2023?
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
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@CollectedOverSpread Looks like Twitter classifeies it as an incident... what do you think?
@itsTomekK Started betting on this before I read the comments. If you think this counts, why isn't the market resolved yet?
@WieDan I'm not monitoring constantly, waiting what community says.
Researched now a bit more and history of how Twitter communicated this incident. It should resolve YES. I'm closing.
@itsTomekK fair enough. I started betting thinking if the past issues didn't count nothing will. I thought this was a forgotten market or something. Unfortunately the bot took some money off me before I could sell again lol
AFAIK the status page hasn't recognized any of the degraded states in the last few months. I estimate very high on outages, but if it won't be reported on it doesn't matter that much.
@Quate Nvm, sold all. Status page doesn't indicate anything, which may mean the status page itself isn't a good way to resolve markets like this.
@Quate Yeah, status pages at large tech companies are usually updated manually after confirmation by upper management, which means that they're usually pretty political tools. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon requires all updates to the page to go through him.
I don't think this is the right resolution criteria for the really interesting question. Of what duration will the outage be? How significant will it be? How will users react?
I think that's much more important than, "will the website have 100% uptime" which is a nearly unattainable goal. Twitter has never been a 5 9's website.
Not sure which things count, e.g. were there any this year? If these things are orange, does that mean that they are one? https://api.twitterstat.us/history?page=2
