Will Twitter report an outage, system incident or downtime by the end of 2023?
74
260
1.4K
resolved Sep 15
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve to "YES" if by Dec 31 2023, Twitter will report a major incident (Degraded Performance, Partial Outage or Major Outage) of one of its systems.

Resolved by https://api.twitterstat.us/

Nov 18, 1:27pm: Will Twitter report a system incident/downtime by the end of 2023? → Will Twitter report an outage, system incident or downtime by the end of 2023?

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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predicted YES

Does this incident (mentioned in a previous comment by @JimAusman) count?

predicted NO

@CollectedOverSpread Looks like Twitter classifeies it as an incident... what do you think?

sold Ṁ786 of NO

@itsTomekK Started betting on this before I read the comments. If you think this counts, why isn't the market resolved yet?

predicted NO

@WieDan I'm not monitoring constantly, waiting what community says.
Researched now a bit more and history of how Twitter communicated this incident. It should resolve YES. I'm closing.

@itsTomekK fair enough. I started betting thinking if the past issues didn't count nothing will. I thought this was a forgotten market or something. Unfortunately the bot took some money off me before I could sell again lol

bought Ṁ70 of NO

It's impressive how the market has remained fairly flat even though it's been more than half of the time through the period.

predicted YES

AFAIK the status page hasn't recognized any of the degraded states in the last few months. I estimate very high on outages, but if it won't be reported on it doesn't matter that much.

bought Ṁ100 of YES
sold Ṁ185 of YES

The status page is apparently not taken seriously. No update with all the problems this morning.

bought Ṁ500 of YES

Twitter is pretty broken right now

sold Ṁ478 of YES

@Quate Nvm, sold all. Status page doesn't indicate anything, which may mean the status page itself isn't a good way to resolve markets like this.

@Quate Yeah, status pages at large tech companies are usually updated manually after confirmation by upper management, which means that they're usually pretty political tools. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon requires all updates to the page to go through him.

Close date needs updating by 1 year

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I don't think this is the right resolution criteria for the really interesting question. Of what duration will the outage be? How significant will it be? How will users react?

I think that's much more important than, "will the website have 100% uptime" which is a nearly unattainable goal. Twitter has never been a 5 9's website.

Not sure which things count, e.g. were there any this year? If these things are orange, does that mean that they are one? https://api.twitterstat.us/history?page=2

Arbitrage:

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