Will Manifold introduce a "verified"/"official"/"confirmed" badge by the end of 2023?
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69
Ṁ22k
resolved Aug 7
Resolved
YES

Will resolve YES for any type of badge/type of account which indicates this person is somehow confirmed/verified/real.

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Ṁ1,000
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predicted YES

@itsTomekK this can resolve yes

@firstuserhere you can see it on scott Alexander 's profile

firstuserhereboughtṀ1,000YES

@firstuserhere Man I thought about searching for markets like this after the announcement was posted but I figured there was no way I would be first.

Need to have less faith in the EMH.

@jskf there was an announcement? Lol I just saw Scott having a pink badge saying it's really me, on a market, and immediately searched for verified badge

Manifold seems to be using the trustworthy badge for this now, so I think this should be lower.

predicted NO

Why so much traffic on it now?

predicted NO

And I'm not sure whether current "Trustworthy. Ish" badge should count in this market? Would love to hear your opinions

predicted YES

@kolotom99 I bet yes on the possibility there was a different interpretation, but think just based off the description it should not resolve yet. This market seems to be focusing on verifying a person's "realness", whereas the current verified badges are attempting to show "trustworthiness".

I'm not sure if they convey anything about their "realness" as of now.

@CarsonGale I guess it is not "verified" or "confirmed", but one could argue that it is "official" as it comes from manifold

@CarsonGale I do currently use Trustworthyish to mark official accounts, even if they otherwise would not meet the bar for having enough of a track record on Manifold itself.

predicted NO

'Team member' does not count! Or should it?

@kolotom99 I don't think that should count. They don't indicate any sort of verification, they have a different meaning entirely.

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