The Financial Times, a British business newspaper, annually nominates a Person of the Year to the person the newspaper has considered has demonstrated considerable influence in a given year.
https://ig.ft.com/sites/person-of-the-year/
This market will resolve for the 2024 Person of the Year by The Financial Times.
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here is a list of past winners:
2015 Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany
2016 Donald Trump, President-elect of the United States
2017 Susan Fowler, Software engineer, formerly at Uber
2018 George Soros, Philanthropist
2019 Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft
2020 Uğur Şahin and Özlem Türeci, Founders of BioNTech
2021 Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX
2022 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
2023 Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, CEO of Novo Nordisk
1,000
3.00
Why is Trump so low (19%) given he’s much higher (~80%) for Time POTY and FT had given it to him in 2016 + seems to mirror Time’s picks?
The FT has only once in 50 years given it to the same person twice (Gorbachev), and seems to be much less inclined to just choose the US president, whereas time magazine seems to almost always give it to the president elect.
Apparently it was not just Gorbachev but also Deng Xiaoping, so both political picks.
You make a great point though & FT likelihood should be lower than Time’s (but perhaps more like ~60% imo as Trump’s political comeback is highly notable and not just a standard Election win)