American politics 2023: At least two bills pass that violate the “Hastert Rule”/majority-of-the-majority principle?
33
649
570
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.


Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.

Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:


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From Yglessias's review post:
> True: At least two bills pass that violate the “Hastert Rule” (80%)

@traders Does this mean this was misresolved?

predicted NO

@Shump i'm not subbed, did he cite any specifics? I searched for a while when this last came up and couldn't find any

@SemioticRivalry That's all there is. Just that link.

predicted NO

@Shump Yeah, a rule vote failing isn't a violation of the hastert rule.

A rule failing can happen if 7 Republicans defect, a violation of the Hastert rule (or Majority of the Majority) can only happen when an absolute majority of Republicans vote no and it passes anyway.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Hasn’t this already occurred? Both governments funding bills this year were proposed by a republican speaker but passed in spite of being opposed by a majority of republicans

bought Ṁ666 YES from 69% to 95%
bought Ṁ666 of YES

@JamesJeffryes @itsTomekK this resolves yes

predicted YES

@JamesJeffryes Please provide some links it would be helpful

sold Ṁ91 of YES

@itsTomekK I was mistaken @SemioticRivalry congrats on the free mana

predicted NO

@JamesJeffryes Yeah lol I thought so as well and tried to find the examples and it turns out I'm pretty sure they do not exist!

predicted YES

you just tried to take off my trustworthfishy badge you wackos ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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