2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 2%?
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Throwing out some base rates:
Has happened in 2 out of the last 6 (2000 Ralph Nader and 2016 Gary Johnson).
While Perot had quite substantial support in 1992 and 1996, the Commission on Presidential Debates changed the rules for the 2000 election on who can be included in the debates, requiring 15% support in five national polls, and the leading third party candidates have struggled ever since.