More than 0.25% (what David Bergland won at the 1984 election)

More than 0.38% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2004 election)

More than 0.47% (what Ron Paul won at the 1988 election)

More than 0.56% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2008 election)

More than 0.99% (what Gary Johnson won at the 2012 election)

More than 1.18% (what Jo Jorgensen won at the 2020 election)

More than 1.42% (what John G. Schmitz won at the 1972 election)

More than 2.74% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2000 election)

More than 3.28% (what Gary Johnson won at the 2016 election)

More than 6.61% (what John B. Anderson won at the 1980 election)

More than 8.4% (what Ross Perot won at the 1996 election)

More than 13.5% (what George Wallace won at the 1968 election)

More than 18.9% (what Ross Perot won at the 1992 election)

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about RFK's bid to the strongest third party runs in recent previous elections.

Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market.

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Jo Jorgensen answer should not be taken as 1.18% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total she actually got according to the FEC (1,865,535/158,429,631=~1.1775164%) or Dave Leip's numbers for elections that predate FEC reports.

Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.