On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the epidemic caused by the new coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2 (the cause of COVID-19) had become a pandemic, reaching all continents and infecting hundreds of millions of people. Since then, countries around the world have struggled to vaccinate their population and control outbreaks to reach the so-called "post-pandemic" phase.
According to the WHO, a post-pandemic period means that, although the virus has spread to all continents, many people in all age groups in many countries have some immunity to the new virus, at the same time as no large and unusual outbreaks are occurring in neither the Northern or the Southern Hemispheres. Cases of infection are still expected to occur, but at a lower rate than what was experienced during the pandemic.
This market will be resolved based only on official statements from the World Health Organization.
original market: https://futuur.com/q/149803/when-will-the-world-health-organization-declare-that-the-world-reached-the-post-pandemic-period
quote
"It is therefore with great hope that I declare COVID-19 over as a global health emergency," said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, adding that the end of the emergency did not mean COVID was over as a global health threat.
...
The WHO does not declare the beginning or end of pandemics, although it did start using the term for COVID in March 2020.
/quote
If WHO does not declare the beginning or end of pandemics this may be as close as WHO gets to saying we have reached post pandemic period.
So there are potentially a couple of issues with this claim. First we may reach post pandemic period but WHO never announces this.
Second there could be different interpretations of post pandemic period.
eg https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/
quote
In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.
/quote
is that normally seen before the pandemic or normally seen after the pandemic? I ask this as from the earlier link
quote
"No one should take (this) to mean COVID-19 is no longer a problem," said Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh.
"It is still a significant public health problem and looks likely to remain one for the foreseeable future."
/quote
If WHO does decide it will announce when it is confident post pandemic period has been reached and this amounts to needing covid levels to get down to a new normal low levels then it will probably take at least a couple of years to have a good idea of the new normal low levels so WHO won't want to announce this soon to avoid looking silly.
This announcement may be as close as we get for some time. If this is close enough to settle the claim, then this needs to be judged.
If this is not close enough to settle the claim, then this should be announced so traders know it will not be settled on this and the probability on this claim seems to me to be way too high.
