Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%? | Manifold

Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

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predicts NO

Has anyone else noticed these stupid markets with no resolution criteria where no one could know in principle if it happened, but there is also 100% guarantee no one is going to affect the probability of doom by that much?

It's not quite true that no one could know in principle, since counterfactuals have well-defined physical meanings.

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