1,000
3.00Related questions
Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?
47% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
31% chance
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
15% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
63% chance
Will agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
55% chance
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
44% chance
Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?
18% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will Jose Luis Ricon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
20% chance