What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?

Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?

Will Jose Luis Ricon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?