
Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?
1
100Ṁ102029
55%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?
14% chance
Gary Marcus 2029 AI predications
Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?
68% chance
Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?
4% chance
Will nikola jurkovic have a higher Brier score than Ozzie Gooen on EITHER manifold or metaculus for year 2025?
50% chance
In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
17% chance
Will Gary Marcus state that AGI has been achieved before 2030?
19% chance
Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?
79% chance
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
10% chance
Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?
28% chance