
Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?
1
100Ṁ102029
55%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
18% chance
Will nikola jurkovic have a higher Brier score than Ozzie Gooen on EITHER manifold or metaculus for year 2025?
50% chance
In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
17% chance
Will my rank by EOY 2024 be lower than my rank by EOY 2023 (#58)?
50% chance
Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%)
52% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
17% chance
Will @BasedBeffJezos be worth > $3 million by EOY 2025?
41% chance
Will a basketball player score 45,000 points in the NBA by EOY 2035?
32% chance
Will a basketball player score 50,000 points in the NBA by EOY 2030?
5% chance
Will over 25% of ESPR cohorts of 2020-2024 have manifold.markets accounts by EOY 2024?
50% chance