Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?

Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?

Will nikola jurkovic have a higher Brier score than Ozzie Gooen on EITHER manifold or metaculus for year 2025?

Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?

Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?

Model scores over 50% on GDPVal by EOY 2025?

Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025

Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?

Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%)

Gary Marcus 2029 AI predications