Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?
Basic
3
Ṁ602100
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
7% chance
Will janus/@repligate meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?
40% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?
47% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
31% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
31% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
63% chance
Will Claire Wang (@clairebookworm) meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 1%?
19% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
Will Jose Luis Ricon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
20% chance