Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Claire Wang (@clairebookworm) meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 1%?

Will Jose Luis Ricon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will janus/@repligate meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will QACI alignment affect p(doom) more than 5%?