What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028? | Manifold

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

10

10kṀ662

2028

10%

Wonder-drug: Most adults should consider it

22%

Valuable but imperfect: Some healthy adults should consider it, but there are major drawbacks

25%

Unproven but promising: Too early to tell

30%

Ineffective: Any benefits are too small to be worth the drawbacks

13%

Harmful/scandalous: Clear serious drawbacks that last beyond cessation of treatment

I'll post a proposed resolution here for discussion at least one week before resolving. May resolve to a mixture of up to two different choices in borderline cases.

If there's any substantial disagreement, I'll ask a popular LLM-style chatbot to select a resolution based on the title of the market, the choices, and the text of the ten first Google News results for "rapamycin for longevity".

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the Rapamycin - Effects on Alzheimer's and Cognitive Health (REACH) trial show that Rapamycin improves Alzheimer's

What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?

Will Stephen Wolfram self-report or get in the news 4 any pro-longevity intervention (eg rapamycin/ozempic) by EOY 2028?

Will Peter Thiel start regularly taking rapamycin by EOY 2027?

Will "A primer on the current state of longevity re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will jurgen schmidhuber end up taking rapamycin by EOY 2028

Will Jose Luis ricon finally start regularly taking rapamycin by 2030?

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Will any sitting senator out themselves as taking rapamycin by EOY 2030?

Related questions

Will the Rapamycin - Effects on Alzheimer's and Cognitive Health (REACH) trial show that Rapamycin improves Alzheimer's

What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?

Will Stephen Wolfram self-report or get in the news 4 any pro-longevity intervention (eg rapamycin/ozempic) by EOY 2028?

Will Peter Thiel start regularly taking rapamycin by EOY 2027?

Will "A primer on the current state of longevity re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will jurgen schmidhuber end up taking rapamycin by EOY 2028

Will Jose Luis ricon finally start regularly taking rapamycin by 2030?

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Will any sitting senator out themselves as taking rapamycin by EOY 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy