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Will the writers and actors strikes both end before November 2023? --> This is the description and it implies November 30th 2023 and not November 1 -- In all flavors of English.

The author of this market is highly incompetent or dishonest.

@RajD how does “before november” imply november 30th to you?? also, read the description

@RajD common issue. Sometimes "before 2024" means end of 2023 sometimes not. Using other terms helps.

@RajD I'd say that the plain meaning of "Before X date" means that it closes and resolves based on a date which is before X starts (in this case, that would be 2023-10-31 23:59:59). In any case, the description and the close date should have resolved any perceived ambiguity.

@RajD seriously? Before Nov means 10/31 and the description clearly states that. Questioning is one thing, accusations of incompetence or dishonesty are another. You owe an apology.

@SuperTaxGenius My most generous read here is that RajD is not a native speaker of English or else RajD misread the words "...end before November..." as "..before the end of November...". Either way, though, it's a reading comprehension error rather than an actual problem with the phrasing of the question.

@RajD

Ok Folks. Sorry My bad. I made a mistake

Just for everybody's information: it took 12 days between when the leadership of the WGA agreed to end the strike and when the union officially voted to end it. There’s no chance SAG-AFRA can organize a vote in such a short amount of time

What is the difference between this market and the linked market...?

@BDStraw probably just that nobody thought to arbitrage them

Official end of the strike could be different from announcement of an agreement? But yeah they should be closer.

@Joshua I guess it could be different... But it's not like the question says "will the picket lines disperse and will actors be on set prior to 11/1"... wild that a market with 174 traders could have this much arb opportunity!

@BDStraw Yeah but this market says "Strikes are considered to end when union members pass a vote to end the strike." That will presumably take a while to organize. even if they come to an agreement this weekend or monday it might take a while for a vote to be held. I don't know though.

To be sure that both strikes will be over before November, it is essential to use some data to support the bet. The following is part of what should be considered:

• The end of the writers' strike is a fact because it already happened (https://fortune.com/2023/09/27/hollywood-wga-writers-strike-officially-ends-union-leaders-approve-contract-studios/).

• The strike is not affecting directly the consumer, considering that just 6% think that they will be highly affected by the strike while 34% believe it won't be affected. The consumer perception in terms of the strike is essential because it translates into an economic and reputational consequence. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1403870/consumer-attitude-impact-writer-actor-strikes-us/)

• A market prediction on Kalshi foreseen that the probability of the strike finishing increases with time reaching 97% by March 2024. For now, the probability is 13% by October 31st.

• https://kalshi.com/markets/sag/actors-strike-ends#sag-23jul31

@CamilaHennessey is this from ChatGPT?

The strike appears to be Joever: https://apnews.com/article/writers-strike-deal-hollywood-vote-actors-d3119d670a4fd3449773bf8f4026fb2b

The Hollywood writers strike is over after guild leaders approve contract with studios

Leaders of the writers union declared their nearly five-month-old strike over after board members approved a contract agreement with studios.

@nottelling2ccc I guess SAG-AFTRA still needs to stop striking for this market to resolve yes, but I think it’s very likely that SAG will stop soon too now that WGA has.