This concerns the 2023 Writers Guild and SAG-AFTRA strikes. The question will resolve to "Yes" if both strikes end before November 1, 2023. Strikes are considered to end when union members pass a vote to end the strike.
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@RajD how does “before november” imply november 30th to you?? also, read the description
@RajD common issue. Sometimes "before 2024" means end of 2023 sometimes not. Using other terms helps.
@RajD I'd say that the plain meaning of "Before X date" means that it closes and resolves based on a date which is before X starts (in this case, that would be 2023-10-31 23:59:59). In any case, the description and the close date should have resolved any perceived ambiguity.
@RajD seriously? Before Nov means 10/31 and the description clearly states that. Questioning is one thing, accusations of incompetence or dishonesty are another. You owe an apology.
@SuperTaxGenius My most generous read here is that RajD is not a native speaker of English or else RajD misread the words "...end before November..." as "..before the end of November...". Either way, though, it's a reading comprehension error rather than an actual problem with the phrasing of the question.
@Joshua I guess it could be different... But it's not like the question says "will the picket lines disperse and will actors be on set prior to 11/1"... wild that a market with 174 traders could have this much arb opportunity!
@BDStraw Yeah but this market says "Strikes are considered to end when union members pass a vote to end the strike." That will presumably take a while to organize. even if they come to an agreement this weekend or monday it might take a while for a vote to be held. I don't know though.
To be sure that both strikes will be over before November, it is essential to use some data to support the bet. The following is part of what should be considered:
The end of the writers' strike is a fact because it already happened (https://fortune.com/2023/09/27/hollywood-wga-writers-strike-officially-ends-union-leaders-approve-contract-studios/).
The strike is not affecting directly the consumer, considering that just 6% think that they will be highly affected by the strike while 34% believe it won't be affected. The consumer perception in terms of the strike is essential because it translates into an economic and reputational consequence. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1403870/consumer-attitude-impact-writer-actor-strikes-us/)
A market prediction on Kalshi foreseen that the probability of the strike finishing increases with time reaching 97% by March 2024. For now, the probability is 13% by October 31st.
https://kalshi.com/markets/sag/actors-strike-ends#sag-23jul31
The strike appears to be Joever: https://apnews.com/article/writers-strike-deal-hollywood-vote-actors-d3119d670a4fd3449773bf8f4026fb2b
@nottelling2ccc I guess SAG-AFTRA still needs to stop striking for this market to resolve yes, but I think it’s very likely that SAG will stop soon too now that WGA has.