ian avatar
resolved 
Aug 29
Will manifold allow mana redemptions for gift cards within 30 days?
Resolved
NO

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
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Charles Thomas
M$326
2
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John Beshir
M$281
3
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Daniel Reeves
M$267
4
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Martin Randall
M$147
5
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trainbot
M$56

💸 Best bet

CharlesThomas avatar
Charles Thomas bought M$200 of NO from 93% to 17%2 months ago
Charles Thomas made M$326!
jack avatar
Jack is predicting YES at 18% 2 months ago
0
MattP avatar
Matt P bought M$30 of YES2 months ago
@ian if you do decide to trial it manually, I'll happily be one of the beta testers using my winnings from the YES resolution. ;)
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Charlie avatar
Charlie bought M$10 of YES2 months ago
Betting YES because I think it'd be worth y'all at least trying manually. No use pulling your hair out about the legality if you haven't proven that anyone even wants gift cards. Though, sample size of one: I want. It'd be pretty dope if my Manifold profits could pay my Audible and Apple App Store subscriptions (though I wouldn't redeem for GC's unless I'd amassed significantly more profit than I have now.)
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SirSalty avatar
David bought M$50 of YES2 months ago
I'm still skeptical of gift cards being the route we want to go down but agree it is worth trying. I'm betting on YES because of how determined some of the team seem to be about this. Also, there were suggestions to just do it manually which would make sense to do if we wanted to test it out, so the odds were too good not to bet YES on this happening in the next 30 days.
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ian avatar
Bad news! This from Tremendous: 'After further review of your team's details, unfortunately, we are unable to move forward with approving your Tremendous API approval as your use case does not meet the requirements set by our partner financial institution. Any sensitive documents have been deleted and pending payments canceled, so you will not be charged. I do apologize for any and all inconvenience and we wish you all the best.' I just responded and asked for more details on how we don't meet the reqs. I suppose the next place to ask would be https://developer.amazon.com/incentives-api
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jbeshir avatar
I would predict this to be legally equivalent to just doing real money payouts, so I'm curious if legal advice is intended to be sought or if it has already been sought or if Manifold is planning on going ahead without.
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Kronopath avatar
I agree, this seems like a good way to get the SEC on your tail.
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jbeshir avatar
John Beshir is predicting NO at 18% 2 months ago
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ian avatar
Hm lots of bets but no written opinions. I and the rest of the team are of the opinion to try it. Any reason why we shouldn't or are y'all just betting we don't get approved?
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jack avatar
Jack is predicting YES at 38% 2 months ago
@ian I figured you'd already decided (with very high probability) to try it if the implementation was completed, so the main questions in my mind were whether the approval would come in time and whether your PR would be completed (it mentions secret management as still being figured out)
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NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young is predicting YES at 38% 2 months ago
@ian I think you ought to try it, although a part of me wonders whether it's technically legal?
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pav avatar
Paweł Sysiak is predicting NO at 53% 2 months ago
@ian I think this is something valuable to the community, potentially very impactful (e.g. could be in one liner explanation on what is Manifold). I placed a no bet because I thought you have a chance on stumbling on some roadblock e.g. legality of this. Hope my bet is incorrect :)
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