This market resolves to YES if Congress passes legislation approving funding specifically for a large-scale, coordinated AI development initiative comparable to the Manhattan Project, as proposed by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

Resolution will be based on official congressional records and major news coverage.

References:

• https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CJc5TWyg68idJ5iFr/u-s-china-economic-and-security-review-commission-pushes

• https://www.xm.com/au/research/markets/allNews/reuters/us-government-commission-pushes-manhattan-projectstyle-ai-initiative-53971845

• Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Funding Range:

  • Congress must approve $50-100 billion+ specifically allocated for the AI initiative.

• Update 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution based on availability of information:

  • The market will resolve based on what is known at approximately the close time (2025-06-30).