This market resolves to YES if Congress passes legislation approving funding specifically for a large-scale, coordinated AI development initiative comparable to the Manhattan Project, as proposed by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Resolution will be based on official congressional records and major news coverage.
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@ian I think that it's very plausible that this will be rolled into a joint private/public effort, where congress will inject funds above and beyond the 500 billion announced here. But for now, this does just look like private capital.
@ian I think it's also of note who's not included here: https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/
Google and Meta won't sit this out, xAi and Anthropic won't sit this out. Everyone wants a piece of this. That suggest that there will be additional projects in a similar style to this one announced in not too long.
@ian A logical strategy for the goverment/military is to let the private sector build the infrastructure such that they can come in at the mid-stage of these projects
@MalachiteEagle Nice, I guess for this to really resolve YES I'd want to see congress approve some funding, just a private venture wouldn't suffice.
@ian would it count if the DoD invested in, for example, OpenAI or Oracle AGI initiatives in the near future? Do you have a threshold for how much you'd want to see invested?
@BungalowBernard for example the DoD requests $100m funding for AI and awards a contract for AGI-like capabilities to OpenAI, with the money being part of the annual omnibus spending bill?
Now might be a good time to remind people of this market https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-american-presidential-candi
@AdamK This one looks undervalued: https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-t