Given a FTE employee leaves Manifold this year, who will leave? (First one only)

860Ṁ356

resolved Jan 21

ResolvedN/A

14%Other

10%

Ian

Inga

21%

David

Sinclair

mqp (turns fte then quits)

11%

Wobbles

Conflux

Isaac King

Austin

N/A if none leave, otherwise resolves to the first FTE that quits working at Manifold. Being fired doesn't count. Excludes founders.

I won't resolve to a 'none of the names answered'. I will resolve NA if none of the names answered is the correct answer, i.e. a new hire joins and then quits but the market is closed.

Market context

Manifold

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i did the math wrong on my trades, but i have absolutely no idea why david is/was trading so high.

in my month living with him, he’s expressed a ridiculous amount of love and respect for being hired & working for manifold.

Wobbles boughtṀ35 N/A

@Wobbles oh wow I saw the profile pic and thought David did this 😭

@ian lol

hmm unsure how to evaluate chance of a new fte joining and leaving vs any of us.

they more likely to leave, if they join, but less likely to be in the company in the first place - and there's 4 of us vs n new engineers

kudos on the chutzpah if all four of you are actually comfortable with this market

If any of y’all are uncomfortable with this market I’m happy to NA it! I thought this market was trading unexpectedly high: /ManifoldMarkets/will-any-fte-leave

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14% chance

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