Will any FTE leave? | Manifold

Will any FTE leave?

51

closes Jan 1

20%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will any full time employees (excluding founders) part ways with Manifold before the end of the year? This includes current FTE as well as any new hires made in 2023.

This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.

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Sort by:

Pip Fowerakerbought Ṁ55 of YES

Not that I want anyone to leave, of course, but it's a little undersold when there's still a quarter left in the year IMO

1 reply

Mira 🍎bought Ṁ0 of NO

@PipFoweraker Left a limit order for you at 40%

Elliot Daviesbought Ṁ25 of YES

I'm stunned by how low this is - based on prior experience young smart people move around a lot. I'd be surprised if this hasn't resolved positive by the summer

1 reply

Robert Cousineaubought Ṁ50 of NO

@ElliotDavies current thoughts?

Ian Philipspredicts NO

I was surprised by how high this market is trading so I made the following: /ian/given-a-fte-employee-leaves-manifol

2 replies

Matt C. Wilsonbought Ṁ10 of NO

@ian Should this go into https://manifold.markets/group/manifolds-2023-predictions?

Brendan Finanpredicts YES

Turnover at startups is pretty high, which I think is the assumption most people are using as a baseline

How many FTE's do you have?

1 reply

Jamespredicts NO

@Boklam Aside from the 3 founders, there are 4 FTE's!

dggL bought Ṁ64 NO from 21% to 20%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 YES at 21% (cancelled) 🤖

dggL bought Ṁ210 NO from 23% to 20%

dggL bought Ṁ50 NO from 24% to 23%

nado bought Ṁ22 YES at 24% 🎁

nado bought Ṁ20 NO at 24% 🎁

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ80/Ṁ100 NO at 24% (cancelled) 🤖

jcb bought Ṁ75 NO from 27% to 25%

dggL bought Ṁ134 NO from 30% to 27%

Ithaca filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ10 YES at 30% 🤖

Joshua created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 30%

dggL bought Ṁ100 NO from 31% to 29%

Ian Philips bought Ṁ95 NO from 34% to 31%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ100 YES at 34% (cancelled) 🤖

Henri Thunberg sold Ṁ69 YES from 36% to 33%

Mira 🍎 created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 40%

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 36% 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ92/Ṁ100 NO at 37% (cancelled) 🤖

Pip Foweraker bought Ṁ250 YES from 28% to 40%

Mira 🍎 filled limit order Ṁ52/Ṁ1,000 NO at 40% (cancelled)

Dan sold Ṁ9 YES from 29% to 28%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ65/Ṁ100 NO at 29% (cancelled) 🤖

wustep bought Ṁ100 YES from 25% to 31%

Ian Philips bought Ṁ200 NO from 28% to 25%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ100 YES at 28% (cancelled) 🤖

Ian Philips bought Ṁ200 NO from 31% to 27%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ32/Ṁ100 YES at 31% (cancelled) 🤖

Ian Philips bought Ṁ95 NO from 31% to 29%

Ian Philips bought Ṁ95 NO from 34% to 31%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ100 YES at 34% (cancelled) 🤖

wustep bought Ṁ100 YES from 28% to 33%

Odoacre bought Ṁ45 YES from 25% to 28%

Mira 🍎 created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 80% (cancelled)

Mira 🍎 created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 60% (cancelled)

Mira 🍎 created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 40% (cancelled)

Mira 🍎 created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 80% (cancelled)

Mira 🍎 created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 60% (cancelled)

Mira 🍎 created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 40% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 24% 🤖

S G bought Ṁ100 NO from 26% to 25%

S G bought Ṁ500 NO from 39% to 26%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ35/Ṁ100 NO at 39% (cancelled) 🤖

Pip Foweraker bought Ṁ55 YES from 37% to 40%

Floris van Doorn bought Ṁ40 NO from 39% to 37%

awse bought Ṁ10 NO at 39%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ53/Ṁ100 NO at 39% (cancelled) 🤖

wustep bought Ṁ100 YES from 35% to 41%

Robert Cousineau bought Ṁ50 NO from 37% to 35%

Henri Thunberg bought Ṁ50 YES from 34% to 37%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ84/Ṁ100 NO at 34% (cancelled) 🤖

Related questions

Will things become better with my postdoc advisor?

12% chance

Will I complete the summer work set by my director of studies?

5% chance

I want to submit my PhD thesis this year. Can you recommend or offer a personalised coaching “guideline” to get it done?

Fernando B. Avila Rencoret

Ṁ9kbounty

Will I still have my current job by the end of the year?

61% chance

Will I think it would have been ex-post better to try to get a job at Anthropic instead of working at Redwood Research?

Ryan Greenblatt

36% chance

Will I get my end of year bonus at my current employer?

55% chance

Will I be fired/laid off/let go in the next year

10% chance

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 2 years?

Ryan Greenblatt

47% chance

Will I get a tenure-track academic job offer before 2025?

William D'Alessandro

23% chance

Will I get a job by the end of this year?

73% chance

Will I get a job offer in the US before 2024 that would allow me to save at least US$70k/year? [M500 Subsidy]

68% chance

What will be my first job after I get my PhD?

In what month will I receive and accept a job offer?

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

6.5

Will I apply for a job and get an offer as a result of my bounty market?

48% chance

Will I still be on the same job in 1 year?

35% chance

Will I get a tenure track job in a couple of years?

38% chance

Can I become a sculptor in one year?

60% chance

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

64% chance

Will I hold for a year a normal career track job this decade?

79% chance

Will I start a business?

55% chance