Will any FTE leave?
closes Jan 1

Will any full time employees (excluding founders) part ways with Manifold before the end of the year? This includes current FTE as well as any new hires made in 2023.

This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will things become better with my postdoc advisor?
fierydemon avatarfierydemon
12% chance
Will I complete the summer work set by my director of studies?
Nils avatarNils
5% chance
I want to submit my PhD thesis this year. Can you recommend or offer a personalised coaching “guideline” to get it done?
Will I still have my current job by the end of the year?
Wobbles avatarWobbles
61% chance
Will I think it would have been ex-post better to try to get a job at Anthropic instead of working at Redwood Research?
RyanGreenblatt avatarRyan Greenblatt
36% chance
Will I get my end of year bonus at my current employer?
Pepe avatarPepe
55% chance
Will I be fired/laid off/let go in the next year
MichaelBlume avatarMike Blume
10% chance
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 2 years?
RyanGreenblatt avatarRyan Greenblatt
47% chance
Will I get a tenure-track academic job offer before 2025?
Will I get a job by the end of this year?
whalelang avatarwhale
73% chance
Will I get a job offer in the US before 2024 that would allow me to save at least US$70k/year? [M500 Subsidy]
IC avatarIC
68% chance
What will be my first job after I get my PhD?
In what month will I receive and accept a job offer?
Will I apply for a job and get an offer as a result of my bounty market?
jskf avatarjskf
48% chance
Will I still be on the same job in 1 year?
Mikelon797 avatarMikelon797
35% chance
Will I get a tenure track job in a couple of years?
fierydemon avatarfierydemon
38% chance
Can I become a sculptor in one year?
Alice avatarAlice
60% chance
WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?
uzpg avatarUzay
64% chance
Will I hold for a year a normal career track job this decade?
BenjaminIkuta avatarBenjamin Ikuta
79% chance
Will I start a business?
BenjaminIkuta avatarBenjamin Ikuta
55% chance
Sort by:
PipFoweraker avatar
Pip Fowerakerbought Ṁ55 of YES

Not that I want anyone to leave, of course, but it's a little undersold when there's still a quarter left in the year IMO

1 reply
Mira avatar
Mira 🍎bought Ṁ0 of NO

@PipFoweraker Left a limit order for you at 40%

ElliotDavies avatar
Elliot Daviesbought Ṁ25 of YES

I'm stunned by how low this is - based on prior experience young smart people move around a lot. I'd be surprised if this hasn't resolved positive by the summer

1 reply
RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineaubought Ṁ50 of NO

@ElliotDavies current thoughts?

ian avatar
Ian Philipspredicts NO

I was surprised by how high this market is trading so I made the following: /ian/given-a-fte-employee-leaves-manifol

2 replies
MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilsonbought Ṁ10 of NO
BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finanpredicts YES

Turnover at startups is pretty high, which I think is the assumption most people are using as a baseline

Boklam avatar

How many FTE's do you have?

1 reply
JamesGrugett avatar
Jamespredicts NO

@Boklam Aside from the 3 founders, there are 4 FTE's!