First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by May 1st 2025
68
1kṀ31kMay 2
1.5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently no confirmed human-to-human transmission. Resolves YES if WHO or CDC confirms first case of human-to-human H5N1 transmission anywhere globally by May 1, 2025. Resolution source: WHO/CDC official announcements.
Previous market: /ian/first-confirmed-humantohuman-h5n1-t
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Number of H5N1 clinical trials for human treatments registered by April 30, 2025
Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025?
35% chance
If H5N1 pandemic occurs by 2026, what will be the confirmed case fatality rate for humans in first 3 months?
Will there be at least 1000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025?
6% chance
Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025?
2% chance
"Will the World Health Organization officially declare H5N1 a pandemic before December 31st 2025
9% chance
What percent of 100M people will die from H5N1 by end of 2025?
3% chance