First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025
Plus
19
Ṁ3217Feb 1
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently no confirmed human-to-human transmission. Resolves YES if WHO or CDC confirms first case of human-to-human H5N1 transmission anywhere globally by February 1, 2025. Resolution source: WHO/CDC official announcements.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024?
64% chance
With the third human case of H5N1 Bird Flu reported in US, how many human cases will be confirmed in 2024?
Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 by the end of 2024?
49% chance
When will the US H5N1 human case count surpass 100?
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
What will be the CDC’s official mortality rate of H5N1 on January 1st, 2026?
How many H5N1 bird flu human cases will be confirmed in the US in 2025?
Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024?
19% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 globally before 2025?
8% chance
Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025?
61% chance