In November, will Manifold think that H5 bird flu was transmitting human-to-human prior to February 12th?

On November 1 in my time zone, I will create a poll lasting a ~week with this title and the following answers:

Was H5 bird flu transmitting human-to-human prior to February 12th?

If there are more YES votes than NO votes, this market resolves YES. (A tie resolves NO.)

Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The poll has been created and is now live at the linked URL. The market will resolve based on the results of this poll according to the criteria in the description.

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