
Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?
4
1kṀ2532040
58%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to determine if we develop an artificial general intelligence (AGI) before desktop search becomes good.
I'll use common sense definitions for “Good Desktop Search” and AGI. In the case they happen pretty much at the same time, the market will be decided according to the following rules:
1. If AGI was necessary to develop good desktop search, the market will resolve to yes.
2. If good desktop search becomes available on Mac OS or Windows and does not use AGI as a component or substantial subsystem, the market will resolve to no.
The end date is set for January 1st, 2040. as a daily user of AI products and terrible desktop search I'll keep my eye on this one personally
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2030?
58% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
61% chance
Will we get AGI before 2047?
87% chance
Will we get AGI before 2046?
85% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
64% chance
Will we get AGI before 2044?
82% chance
Will we get AGI before 2040?
80% chance
Will we get AGI before 2045?
84% chance
Will we get AGI before 2043?
82% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
74% chance