
Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?
4
Ṁ1kṀ2532040
58%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to determine if we develop an artificial general intelligence (AGI) before desktop search becomes good.
I'll use common sense definitions for “Good Desktop Search” and AGI. In the case they happen pretty much at the same time, the market will be decided according to the following rules:
1. If AGI was necessary to develop good desktop search, the market will resolve to yes.
2. If good desktop search becomes available on Mac OS or Windows and does not use AGI as a component or substantial subsystem, the market will resolve to no.
The end date is set for January 1st, 2040. as a daily user of AI products and terrible desktop search I'll keep my eye on this one personally
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will we get AGI before 2030?
31% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
35% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
42% chance
By when will we have AGI?
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
62% chance
Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
67% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
53% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?
84% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2030?
31% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
35% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
42% chance
By when will we have AGI?
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
62% chance
Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
67% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
53% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?
84% chance