Will Gemini Ultra achieve an Elo of 1300 or higher on the Chatbot Arena before May 1, 2024?
34
650Ṁ19kresolved May 1
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Gemini Ultra was released on Feb 8, 2024
As of Feb 9, 2024, it is expected to achieve a higher Elo than GPT-4 according to this market
As of Feb 9, 2024, GPT-4 has an Elo of 1253
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if some version of Gemini Ultra achieves an Elo of 1300 or higher on Chatbot Arena at any point before May 1, 2024
Resolves NO if Gemini Ultra does not reach an Elo of 1300, or if it never appears on the leaderboard before the deadline
Resolves N/A if the leaderboard is no longer publicly accessible at the time of closing
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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