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MANIFOLD
How much will 'Madame Web' (2024) gross domestically on its opening weekend?
20
Ṁ680Ṁ33k
resolved Feb 21
Resolved
NO
>$20 million
Resolved
NO
>$25 million
Resolved
NO
>$30 million
Resolved
NO
>$35 million

This is a market on how much 'Madame Web' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Domestic Opening" number on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11057302/ will be used to resolve this market.

The answers are independent. Any number of them can resolve to YES.

Other details:

  • I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.

  • For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.

    • Since 'Madame Web' opened on a Wednesday, this will likely be just be the FSS gross.

  • The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the question closing date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by the closing date, I will use an alternative source.

  • I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).

  • If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.

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Just came back from this. Incredible, bizarre, inexplicably hilarious. Cannot recommend it enough. My whole theater was laughing at points. This probably still resolves no but word of mouth is going to give this movie legs.

Edited the description to clarify that the BOM reported number will likely just be the total from FSS, not including Wednesday and Thursday.

Related

‘Madame Web’ First Reviews Call It “Embarrassing" And A “Clunky, Poorly-Written [Mess]"

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/2/13/0132unqdnki1vw8iahoc31g3glwyfi

Looks like this is getting some action but the probabilities are staying low—could be fun to add >20M? (in case the forecast doesn’t improve).

Related market: "Will Madame Web's opening weekend gross (in millions) be larger than points scored by the KC Chiefs in the Super Bowl?"

Related market: