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MANIFOLD
How much will 'Argylle' (2024) gross domestically on its opening weekend?
12
Ṁ580Ṁ34k
resolved Feb 5
Resolved
YES
>$15 million
Resolved
NO
>$20 million
Resolved
NO
>$25 million
Resolved
NO
>$30 million

This is a market on how much 'Argylle' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Domestic Opening" number on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15009428/ will be used to resolve this market.

The answers are independent. Any number of them can resolve to YES.

Other details:

  • I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.

  • For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.

  • The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the question closing date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by February 9th, I will use an alternative source.

  • I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).

  • If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.

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@howahlah the actuals came in

@mattyb Not according to BOM, unfortunately

@howahlah ah, i use The-Numbers who I guess are speedier. Sg

@mattyb I've been using boxofficemojo (since it's intuitive/easy) but they can be annoyingly slow to update tbh

@Ziddletwix The-Number is great for this single purpose. The other thing they do really well is box offices races - like Godzilla

@mattyb oh those charts are super handy, nice (haven't used that before, seems useful)

bought Ṁ8 NO

@mattyb all that i’ve seen is that Argylle’s opening “in the teens”. I’m betting on Vaughn to flop yet again.