Any deal that could be easily perceived as "against the interests of the USA" will be considered. These include but are not limited to:
- Kicking out USA military personnel from local bases
- Temporarily restricting US operations in said bases
- Restricting airspace access to the USA
- Agreeing to only sell oil in Yuan for the duration of the conflict

The deal must:
1) Offer a concrete non-aggression guarantee by Iran
2) Sideline the USA*
3) Be publicly acknowledged by both sides

*A deal between the USA and Iran that happens to help conditions for all the gulf-states will not be considered. (That said, I can see a world where Bahrain and Iran strike a deal and Trump insists it's his deal cause he's the dealmaker... I would consider this still sidelines the USA if it clearly favours Bahrain only.)

If the war ends before any gulf-state reaches such an agreement, this will resolve NO.

I will not bet on this market.