The materials used in the paper are far cheaper and more available than previous ones, purchasable from Amazon for a few hundred USD. Given that, plus the magnitude of the discovery at play, we would expect to see an onslaught of people trying to replicate in the next few weeks.
As for why August 15 -- that's my birthday :)
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@AndrewQuinn I need to hurry and get these materials into the oven before I lose 50 mana
Just a thought and may have already been answered. But couldn't replication mean only partial levitation and zero resistance (as opposed to full evidence/proof/validation as superconductor)? There seem to be a fair number of examples of this already, so what defines success - who is recognised enough to provide consensus?
@DanielPugh The title says "room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print", so you'd expect a replication of the paper to at least include room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity.
In the end I guess it's up to the question creator.
How does this market resolve? Based on whether the main market has resolved by August 15th? Or if there’s a claimed replication that happens before the 15th but is fully verified after, does this still resolve YES?
@DanMan314 If I understand MM right, the market closing can be at a different time from the question resolving, which opens up the possibility of the latter.
"Fully" verified is tough to pin down precisely in this context. But let's give the verification efforts, say, 1 week after the market closes (so, until 2023.08.22). If one of those pre-2023.08.15 replications does verify, we'll resolve as YES. Obviously new claimed replications between 15 and 22 are off the table here.
@AndrewQuinn And by verify, you mean sufficiently to cause the main market to close? Or some other criteria?
@DanMan314 sure, might as well shore up the upper bound https://manifold.markets/AndrewQuinn/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre-a3f48bd3c4a8#amLvHRjIMeupAy024YHH on this comment
https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01516
we're so back
This is the arxiv writeup of the same report we got a few days back with a sus video. It's nothing everyone hasn't already seen. The team could still publish more that could cause these markets to resolve yes, they say they're working on it. But this definitely isn't it, it's been posted like four times on the main market now and Quantum has acknowledged it.
.
https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1686805961124855810?s=20
replicated 0 resistance at 110K (100K over the next most cost effective superconductor)
there's absolutely more refinement in the synthesis process to be done here, this is getting fully replicated by the 15th absolutely
@AndrewQuinn There are literally hundreds of labs or more trying to replicate and it's mostly readily available materials.
https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1686215574177841152
National Lab (LBNL) results support LK-99 as a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor.
[...]
@sineatrix from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab simulated this using heavy-duty compute power from the Department of Energy,
[...]
It turns out that there are conduction pathways for electrons that are in just the right conditions and places that would enable them to 'superconduct'.
@ianminds hell yeah love this guy on Twitter. doesn't look terribly likely to succeed either way now though :(