Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before August 15, 2023?
resolved Aug 15

The materials used in the paper are far cheaper and more available than previous ones, purchasable from Amazon for a few hundred USD. Given that, plus the magnitude of the discovery at play, we would expect to see an onslaught of people trying to replicate in the next few weeks.

As for why August 15 -- that's my birthday :)

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jim avatar
james opredicted YES

Happy Birthday

AndrewQuinn avatar
Andrew Quinn

@jameso t-thanks 🥲

AndrewQuinn avatar
Andrew Quinn

Moving market close up one day because I specified before August 15th. Will resolve question in about 8-10 hours once I wake up tomorrow.

cloudprism avatar
Haydenpredicted YES

@AndrewQuinn I need to hurry and get these materials into the oven before I lose 50 mana

DanielPugh avatar
Daniel Pughbought Ṁ10 of YES

Just a thought and may have already been answered. But couldn't replication mean only partial levitation and zero resistance (as opposed to full evidence/proof/validation as superconductor)? There seem to be a fair number of examples of this already, so what defines success - who is recognised enough to provide consensus?

yep avatar

@DanielPugh The title says "room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print", so you'd expect a replication of the paper to at least include room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity.

In the end I guess it's up to the question creator.

DanMan314 avatar
Danpredicted NO

How does this market resolve? Based on whether the main market has resolved by August 15th? Or if there’s a claimed replication that happens before the 15th but is fully verified after, does this still resolve YES?

AndrewQuinn avatar
Andrew Quinnpredicted YES

@DanMan314 If I understand MM right, the market closing can be at a different time from the question resolving, which opens up the possibility of the latter.

"Fully" verified is tough to pin down precisely in this context. But let's give the verification efforts, say, 1 week after the market closes (so, until 2023.08.22). If one of those pre-2023.08.15 replications does verify, we'll resolve as YES. Obviously new claimed replications between 15 and 22 are off the table here.

DanMan314 avatar
Danpredicted NO

@AndrewQuinn And by verify, you mean sufficiently to cause the main market to close? Or some other criteria?

PanosFilianos avatar
Panos Filianosbought Ṁ100 of YES
Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought Ṁ200 of NO

My dude that's the same attempt as a few days ago

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicted NO

Like, no other market is resolving off of this

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicted NO

We can all agree that this won't resolve yes without the main 2025 market resolving yes, right?

AndrewQuinn avatar
Andrew Quinnpredicted YES

@Joshua [Submitted on 3 Aug 2023]

was it resubmitted?

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicted NO

This is the arxiv writeup of the same report we got a few days back with a sus video. It's nothing everyone hasn't already seen. The team could still publish more that could cause these markets to resolve yes, they say they're working on it. But this definitely isn't it, it's been posted like four times on the main market now and Quantum has acknowledged it.

Yul769e avatar
Yulpredicted YES


NoriLi avatar
Nori Libought Ṁ123 of YES


replicated 0 resistance at 110K (100K over the next most cost effective superconductor)

there's absolutely more refinement in the synthesis process to be done here, this is getting fully replicated by the 15th absolutely

AndrewQuinn avatar
Andrew Quinnbought Ṁ100 of YES

@BradCooper and people really thought i was early with this one

BradCooper avatar
Brad Cooperpredicted YES

@AndrewQuinn There are literally hundreds of labs or more trying to replicate and it's mostly readily available materials.

punting avatar


National Lab (LBNL) results support LK-99 as a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor.


@sineatrix from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab simulated this using heavy-duty compute power from the Department of Energy,


It turns out that there are conduction pathways for electrons that are in just the right conditions and places that would enable them to 'superconduct'.

ianminds avatar

More specific market:

AndrewQuinn avatar
Andrew Quinn

@ianminds hell yeah love this guy on Twitter. doesn't look terribly likely to succeed either way now though :(