Admin resolved. Seemed a pretty incontested NO but I didn't looked that long, so would be willing to change it if ppl/creator thinks it should be yes and have very good reason why.

@DavidChee Thanks, I was afk due to medical reasons. I wasn't planning on resolving immediately after close due to the high volatility and number of traders. Especially in light of https://manifold.markets/ianminds/will-andrew-mccalip-demonstrate-the#PEn1jDmIep4h3yLUsgSx I'm ok with your "speedy" admin resolution.

predicted NO

OP seems pretty clearly AFK at this point, don't suppose anyone here knows them outside Manifold?

predicted NO

Seems a clear no at this point.

predicted NO

OP, where resolve?

predicted NO

When will this resolve? It seems a clear NO?

predicted NO

https://twitter.com/andrewmccalip/status/1687564381243277312?s=20

predicted NO

@ianminds Could you weigh in on how you will resolve this market if by August 6th we have more or less the same information as now?

I personally think what we have so far doesn't demonstrate the Meissner effect, and Andrew McCalip doesn't seem to think so yet either, but it would be good to clarify the resolution criteria.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 He seems to think it’s consistent but not conclusive?

@NiallWeaver I'm not sure what you mean by consistent. I don't put a literally 0% chance on what we're seeing being a weak effect in an extremely impure sample, although I think it's extremely unlikely.

In my opinion there are sort of two options here, depending on your definition of "demonstrate":

"Demonstrate" means "clearly show": resolves NO.
"Demonstrate" means any Meissner effect: Market will have to wait to resolve until future tests have come to a consensus on whether these wobbles we're seeing were the Meissner effect or just something else.

I would personally go with 1, but it's up to @ianminds hence why I'm asking. And I think the difference is relevant to trading on it now.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@DanMan314 what would be causing the effect shown that would not be the meissner effect? As long as the magnet is a real permanent magnet and there is no other trickery going on, it seems to me that it is clearly meissner effect, albeit weak.

predicted YES

@PierceMccall I guess he could do some heating of the sample to see if it loses the effect. But afaik flux pinning is not a requirement to prove that the sample is ejecting the magnetic field

predicted NO

@PierceMccall I don’t think this is really the spot to litigate it, it’s more relevant what the market creator thinks that’s why I ask.

predicted NO

Livestream with Varda ongoing!

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Reposting from main market:

Delian:

"I know the manifold markets, the very binary thing they're betting on is like 'is the LK99 paper a real super conductor?' - I still say 'Maaaaybe, probably not'. But is this like a field that is going to lead to room temperature superconductors over the next decade? I feel pretty confident at this point saying from everything that I've read: it's like 90+% chance that this is a field that will lead to that path."

Host:

"Andrew, you're nodding in agreement there."

Andrew:

"Yeah yeah, Delian absolutely nailed it."

predicted NO

We have some markets on whether there will be any RTAP superconductor (whether LK99 or something else):

predicted NO

How will this market resolve if McCalip demonstrates an effect that could be either the Meissner effect or explained by diamagnetism (which I think he has done), and then after August 6 it turns out that this really was the Meissner effect?

sold Ṁ81 of NO

@FlorisvanDoorn I think if the effect demonstrated is ambiguous then it can't resolve YES.

predicted YES

@Tater Seems to me like inconclusive = resolves N/A or NO, it can't be resolved YES.

predicted NO

@DamianGoryl there's still until tomorrow for him to post more info

predicted NO

Yup. He's notably not claiming to have the Meissner effect on twitter:

predicted NO

@FlorisvanDoorn I would say "demonstrate" is equal to "clearly shows". It should unambiguously not be regular, or even quite strong diamagnetism. Even the original samples have not "demonstrated" the Meissner effect, in my opinion. They are very interesting and surprisingly floaty, but that is all so far.

sold Ṁ59 of NO

Agreed. The fact that he says he feels like he knows less than before is entirely reasonable, because these results are unclear! I applaud him for putting the work in to get these results, but this is so far from settled.