Have searches for ChatGPT peaked this year?
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resolved Oct 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves NO if according to google trends, either searches for "chatgpt" or "chat gpt" (case insensitive) surpass their respective maximums before 2024. Otherwise, resolves YES.

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sold Ṁ108 of YES

Just surpassed its maximum.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Pandurevich can confirm, this resolves NO

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Henry641d For worldwide searches, or just the US?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

We are so close! Full-week non-extrapolated results show global searches at 99% of peak value.

predicted YES

@ByrneHobart What? Why do your results look different from mine?

predicted YES

@EliTyre Oh. Because you're looking at worldwide, and I was looking at US.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

It is peaking out again (Edited: See the comments below)

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@2eb7 The partial period extrapolations are very noisy. If you choose a shorter time period, it goes away. I have no idea why Google doesn't handle extrapolation better, but lots of investors have gotten burned by looking at those before.

sold Ṁ131 of YES

@ByrneHobart Hmm, it seems you're right. TIL. Thanks.

Oh, this is a useful market

predicted NO

(Double)

bought Ṁ100 of NO
  • "chatgpt" 97% of previous maximum for last week in Google trend and increasing fast

  • Next weeks: chatgpt will support audio and image outputs

  • OpenAI now have a competitive image generation model (Dall-e 3)

  • OpenAI said they succeeded at managing the new risks from image generation

  • More people adopting chatgpt at work, coming back from summer break and having their manager giving them the authorisation

bought Ṁ100 of NO
bought Ṁ20 of YES

The current level of interest is 64% or 55% out of 100%, depending on the search term. I believe that interest will continue to decline over time.


bought Ṁ50 of NO

The answer is a qualified “No”…

predicted NO

@Meta_C No doubt, there will be searches for “GPT-5” and beyond before the end of this year.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

(perhaps unfortunately) "chatgpt" has become a generic term for LLMs amongst the general public

@loafenson That's true

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