Will Manifold auction off the top Market(s) you see when you log in?
22
115Ṁ1336
resolved Jun 7
Resolved
NO
The current home page is an algo feed based on organic activity. Will Manifold allow the creator and/or participants in a market to partake in an auction for the top X spots on the feed ala Sponsored Search Results? It could be a daily auction for the top X spots shown in a 24 hour period; or some other mechanism. Market resolves to YES if the ability to pay for position on the feed is implemented by June 1st, 2022 when the market closes.
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predictedNO
probably better than what we have currently, but that isn't saying much
direct markets for attention (advertising) tends to curate bad content. ppl come here to read what's true, not read what other people paid them to read
- Could create some healthy competition between markets. - Would create liquidity if bid amount is used as liquidity - Would be transparent and therefore fairer than some other methods? - It'll only account for a few of the markets towards the top - so it doesn't prevent other methods (like curation or algo) from also being used
I don't like this. I'd prefer a curated list 'editor choice'. I think the creators have a good idea of what they like as evidenced by (a) they run a bot to copy across markets and (b) they gave free extra mana to at least one market creator whose markets they like. I think editors picks would be much better than "sponsored results". That said if you go for a scheme like this, just like buying $M doesn't affect your profit, using $M for this purpose shouldn't negate your profit for leaderboard purposes.
I think it would improve the quality of markets people are shown because a market someone cares enough about to subsidize is more likely to be interesting in some way. Additionally, "the quality of markets shown to people" is not the only metric that should be optimized; it's good for people to be able to pay for information, and an important part of paying for information in the form of a subsidy is that people actually go and take the subsidy.
predictedNO
Why would this improve the quality of the markets that people are being shown?
My gut is that this is a little unfair, idk if that's actually the right way to think about it.
I don't know if it should be that high on the priority list -- see https://blog.beeminder.com/eggbasket/ -- but I do love the idea in principle. But also, maybe just let people subsidize markets by adding liquidity which could incidentally sort markets to the top of the home page?
betting yes. I sort of doubt it'll stick but it's an awesome idea.
Could also build in a time decay for the amount that was bid. Allowing a market to stay on top for a short/long period of time depending on competing new bids.
Wow this is a crazy but very intriguing idea~ Could reuse the Harberger tax mechanism we figured out a while ago https://manifoldmarkets.substack.com/p/below-the-fold-manafold-markets-is?s=r
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