What will white (aka Manifold) play as the first move?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
For each of the two or three move candidates, a conditional market will be created.The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves.
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000
3.00Predict now on e4 and g4:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1 (1. e4)
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-360853436424 (1. g4)
Moves by average probability:
0.451615 e4
0.218743 d4
0.106156 g4
0.035196 f4
0.029201 a3
0.019255 Resign3
0.019156 Resign2
0.019057 Resign1
0.002263 c4
0.002243 Nf3
pick a number between 1 and 999999909 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-301788149] e4, d4
[301788150-440021104] e4, g4
[440021105-528800969] e4, d4, g4
[528800970-581205553] d4, g4
[581205554-625680666] e4, f4
[625680667-662493965] e4, a3
[662493966-689392446] e4, d4, f4
[689392447-713573603] e4, Resign3
[713573604-737630021] e4, Resign2
[737630022-761560802] e4, Resign1
[761560803-783731916] e4, d4, a3
[783731917-800449935] d4, f4
[800449936-814915473] e4, d4, Resign3
[814915474-829305452] e4, d4, Resign2
[829305453-843619336] e4, d4, Resign1
[843619337-857447914] d4, a3
[857447915-867406582] e4, g4, f4
[867406583-876479894] d4, Resign3
[876479895-885506303] d4, Resign2
[885506304-894485471] d4, Resign1
[894485471-999999909] other
Hash of the complete table:
2ae65253fac76452275d9822c0abd5da835cfcabc69feeccd0ac428818429a75
@deagol In principle that would be possible, but I am too lazy to do it now. Since the random number will be drawn shortly after posting this comment anyways, the information value is not that high.
@deagol I think you bought this up too late, given that the averaging already started. If its at 12% but only in the last hour, then it will have a weight proportional to 3% only.
@harfe I know, it’s as planned, just giving my dark horse a small chance. I wil sell it last minute except for 1 shr as I’d be the only one playing that choice.
@deagol I do have a script that calculates the averages (using the list of bets from the API). And then there is a script that assigns integer ranges to all possible outcomes (which can be big). I will publish a hash of the complete list, and a small number of likely outcomes. Then I will use FairlyRandom.
@deagol Example output if I run my script (both averaging and integer ranges) on https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/manifold-plays-chess-2-10-qc2 ...
Moves by average probability:
0.368181 Nc6
0.182790 Qh4
0.153281 0-0
0.147992 Ne6
0.101502 e4
0.004294 Be7
pick a number between 1 and 999999982 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-157278145] Nc6, Qh4
[157278146-287076141] Nc6, 0-0
[287076142-412049441] Nc6, Ne6
[412049442-495803770] Nc6, e4
[495803771-551352007] Qh4, 0-0
[551352008-604811762] Qh4, Ne6
[604811763-653628390] Nc6, Qh4, 0-0
[653628391-700380710] Nc6, Qh4, Ne6
[700380711-744370141] 0-0, Ne6
[744370142-781707438] Nc6, 0-0, Ne6
[781707439-817400310] Qh4, e4
[817400311-847423985] Nc6, Qh4, e4
[847423986-876778622] 0-0, e4
[876778623-905024982] Ne6, e4
[905024983-928969537] Nc6, 0-0, e4
[928969538-951891704] Nc6, Ne6, e4
[951891704-999999982] other
Hash of the complete table:
a8120b7f23fac23493e12d8e1032514b6012db46d9a14921cb549e386f6d5211
@jack One of the top-ranked moves on https://manifold.markets/deagol/quadratic-funding-whats-a-good-open
@jack that market says “a good move for beginners”, which we aren’t. More concerning, they picked an illegal move (e5) as the top-ranked. 😛