[Manifold Plays Chess 3] What will white play in move 1?

Fun•Chess•FairlyRandom•Manifold plays chess

Ṁ429

resolved Mar 7

ALL

51%

26%

0.2%

Nf3

0.2%

0.6%

Resign1

0.6%

Resign2

0.6%

Resign3

10%

0.4%

What will white (aka Manifold) play as the first move?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

For each of the two or three move candidates, a conditional market will be created.The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves.

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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#	Name	Total profit
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4		Ṁ5
5		Ṁ4

24 Comments

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Predict now on e4 and g4:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1 (1. e4)
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-360853436424 (1. g4)

no resign! 🏆

@harfe your random number is: 335775617

Salt: pY5riaV6ZCMvrnR1tt94, round: 2755914 (signature 94131b099f82813bdefa469ef96fa1efd3d26b7d96e5cd9b368f06b4dfac8ba5b5ddfb01df9d6e31342a391a3c6d05e3021848d4ad7e26dee0bd1366b7d4048d3da4b7f4b1af3bf059ed7b6365bfd159cad55abe2cd42b4ffe7eb1fb1b666eb3)

@FairlyRandom e4 and g4 it is!

@FairlyRandom 999999909

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999909, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2755912 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2755914, salt: pY5riaV6ZCMvrnR1tt94.

Moves by average probability:

0.451615 e4

0.218743 d4

0.106156 g4

0.035196 f4

0.029201 a3

0.019255 Resign3

0.019156 Resign2

0.019057 Resign1

0.002263 c4

0.002243 Nf3

pick a number between 1 and 999999909 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-301788149] e4, d4

[301788150-440021104] e4, g4

[440021105-528800969] e4, d4, g4

[528800970-581205553] d4, g4

[581205554-625680666] e4, f4

[625680667-662493965] e4, a3

[662493966-689392446] e4, d4, f4

[689392447-713573603] e4, Resign3

[713573604-737630021] e4, Resign2

[737630022-761560802] e4, Resign1

[761560803-783731916] e4, d4, a3

[783731917-800449935] d4, f4

[800449936-814915473] e4, d4, Resign3

[814915474-829305452] e4, d4, Resign2

[829305453-843619336] e4, d4, Resign1

[843619337-857447914] d4, a3

[857447915-867406582] e4, g4, f4

[867406583-876479894] d4, Resign3

[876479895-885506303] d4, Resign2

[885506304-894485471] d4, Resign1

[894485471-999999909] other

Hash of the complete table:

2ae65253fac76452275d9822c0abd5da835cfcabc69feeccd0ac428818429a75

@harfe does this seem roughly right to you? First time I am running my script...

@harfe I think is ok, just very hard for me to really be 100% sure at a glance

@deagol is there a way to sum out all the partials? like, add up all that contain each move?

@deagol In principle that would be possible, but I am too lazy to do it now. Since the random number will be drawn shortly after posting this comment anyways, the information value is not that high.

answered

@deagol I think you bought this up too late, given that the averaging already started. If its at 12% but only in the last hour, then it will have a weight proportional to 3% only.

sold Ṁ10 of e4

@harfe I know, it’s as planned, just giving my dark horse a small chance. I wil sell it last minute except for 1 shr as I’d be the only one playing that choice.

sold Ṁ2 of f4

@harfe I think I’m good 🙂

sold Ṁ6 of g4

Let the averaging begin, however it will be done.

What are the randomization mechanics?

I really liked @citrinitas script, hope there’s something similar here.

sold Ṁ9 of f4

Related, how will the last 4h average probability be computed?

@deagol I do have a script that calculates the averages (using the list of bets from the API). And then there is a script that assigns integer ranges to all possible outcomes (which can be big). I will publish a hash of the complete list, and a small number of likely outcomes. Then I will use FairlyRandom.

bought Ṁ10 of e4

@deagol Example output if I run my script (both averaging and integer ranges) on https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/manifold-plays-chess-2-10-qc2 ...

Moves by average probability:

0.368181 Nc6

0.182790 Qh4

0.153281 0-0

0.147992 Ne6

0.101502 e4

0.004294 Be7

pick a number between 1 and 999999982 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-157278145] Nc6, Qh4

[157278146-287076141] Nc6, 0-0

[287076142-412049441] Nc6, Ne6

[412049442-495803770] Nc6, e4