
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 1. e4, what is the score after move 2?
4
110Ṁ123resolved Mar 9
Resolved as
23%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The other candidate move is 1. g4.
The conditional market for the other move is here:
If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 2. Otherwise, it resolves N/A.
The score after move 2 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 2.
Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.
More details for the overall game here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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