What will white (Manifold) play in move 8?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
1,000
3.00Moves by average probability:
0.694934 g4
0.212695 Bb5
0.019048 Bc4
0.004890 Bxe4
0.004418 Be2
0.003007 Nxe5
0.001657 b4
0.001646 a4
0.001636 Kf1
0.001635 Ke2
0.001519 h3
pick a number between 1 and 999999883 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-623594905] g4, Bb5
[623594906-742559793] g4, Bb5, Bc4
[742559794-795427019] g4, Bc4
[795427020-825700646] g4, Bb5, Bxe4
[825700647-853046522] g4, Bb5, Be2
[853046523-871641581] g4, Bb5, Nxe5
[871641582-885169493] g4, Bxe4
[885169494-897391202] g4, Be2
[897391203-907629832] g4, Bb5, b4
[907629832-999999883] other
Hash of the complete table:
ef034b4f459345d4bd1b44de571a31b5888cb62181023d1cd5a0837461089e70
Forces black to take the B (any other move by black gets back to equal with white’s d3).
After black takes, white’s plan is d3, black B retreats, then Be3 gains tempo and sorely needed development. Or, for the more adventurous (or to confuse SF3) white could give up another pawn to try pin black’s B in front of their King, with d4 followed by Qe2.