[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 8. g4, what is the score after move 9?

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resolved Mar 23

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Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5

The other candidate moves are 8. Bb5 and 8. Bc4

The conditional markets for the other moves are here:

If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other markets, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 9. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 9 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 9.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Mar 22, 1:40am: ~~[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 8. g4, what is the score after move 8?~~ → [Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 8. g4, what is the score after move 9?

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predicted NO

Bb5: Average probability: 0.758468

Bc4: Average probability: 0.736854
g4: Average probability: 0.729556

Bb5 wins.

g4 has the best stockfish evaluation (assuming I didn't mess up the analysis board)

@jack depends how deep you go. I think g4 leads to a quicker queens trade, which benefits black.

@deagol Hmm, it ran to depth 36 for me and it toggled from preferring g4 to Bb5 and back to g4.

predicted YES

Of course, stockfish might not be the best evaluation to use considering we're playing against sf-3, but considering how bad at chess I am I can't do much more than blindly follow stockfish

@Jack2 as a said, both might evaluate similar with perfect play, but keeping the queens on the board makes a big difference against a crappy opponent who’s a piece and more ahead

@Jack2 also consider your (alt’s) profits

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