Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5
The other candidate moves are 8. Bb5 and 8. Bc4
The conditional markets for the other moves are here:
If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other markets, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 9. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 9 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 9.
Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.
More details for the overall game here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Mar 22, 1:40am: [Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 8. g4, what is the score after move 8? → [Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 8. g4, what is the score after move 9?
@jack depends how deep you go. I think g4 leads to a quicker queens trade, which benefits black.
@deagol Hmm, it ran to depth 36 for me and it toggled from preferring g4 to Bb5 and back to g4.
@Jack2 as a said, both might evaluate similar with perfect play, but keeping the queens on the board makes a big difference against a crappy opponent who’s a piece and more ahead
