Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.
The game so far: 1.e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6
The other candidate move is 4. Resign2.
The conditional market for the other move is here:
If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 5. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 5 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 5.
Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.
More details for the overall game here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ470 | |
| 2 | Ṁ143 | |
| 3 | Ṁ67 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
@JuJumper from the description:
“The score after move 5 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 5.”
@Fion the stakes are lower than they appear because the score is very unlikely to be 0 or 100. This does make it a capital-intensive game and I don't know that the RoI makes sense. Jack probably has some clever plan.