What will white (Manifold) play in move 35?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf828. Kd2 Kf7 29. Re1 Kg7 30. Re7+ Kf6 31. Rxc7 h4 32. a4 g5 33. b4 Ke6 34. bxa5 Kd6
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created. The average probability in the last 4 hour of the conditional markets will be measured. The move with higher average probability will be chosen.
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
1,000
3.00Moves by average probability:
0.434179 Rg7
0.373300 Rh7
0.147059 Rb7
0.011380 Threatening g7 pawn could be preferable to h7. Pawn on g5 is more threatening than the h4 pawn, g5 is blocking pawn advancement with a fork in one move. (removed)
0.006305 Rc8
0.000000 Kh7 (removed)
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pick a number between 1 and 999999995 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-455541028] Rg7, Rh7
[455541029-693503684] Rg7, Rh7, Rb7
[693503685-849378618] Rg7, Rb7
[849378619-974966782] Rh7, Rb7
[974966783-983973386] Rg7, Rh7, Rc8
[983973387-990269632] Rg7, Rc8
[990269633-995321564] Rh7, Rc8
[995321564-999999995] other
Hash of the complete table:
4668785ecb4dc3ea73e11821bd958b5dd0f5c1ea0b1abbec86303dd19dc0673b
@AliceFlowers Regarding the merits of each move, all three (Rb7, Rg7, Rh7) are equally good leading at worst (if white doesn’t allow a blunder later) to a mate in 10 moves (including this one) or better if black doesn’t play perfect. White isn’t really threatening the g or h pawns, just getting the rook far from black’s king. Black’s g4 advance and g3 fork are harmless given white’s f pawn will capture it.
Edit: white’s focus will be to promote the a pawn for a queen and an easy mate in a few moves, and black can’t do anything to prevent that.
Other than that, just be careful about betting so high here as anyone with big bucks could bet on a different move and force it to win in the next step, stealing all your M$330, especially if you’re a newbie. Good luck! :)