Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf828. Kd2 Kf7 29. Re1 Kg7 30. Re7+ Kf6 31. Rxc7 h4 32. a4 g5 33. b4 Ke6 34. bxa5 Kd6
The other candidate moves are 35. Rg7 and 35. Rh7
The conditional market for the other moves are here:
The market value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market and the other markets will be measured. If this market has a higher (last-4-hour-average) market value, it will resolve to the score after move 36, otherwise it will resolve N/A. Note that "Market value" and "Score" do not work on the same schale.
Here is a table of the correspondence to market value and score for the current move which will be used to calculate PROB from this score:
Here is a table of the correspondence to market value and score
value score
----- -----
0.00 0.000
0.03 0.246
0.07 0.574
0.10 0.820
0.20 0.840
0.30 0.860
0.40 0.880
0.50 0.900
0.60 0.920
0.70 0.940
0.80 0.960
0.90 0.980
0.93 0.986
0.97 0.994
1.00 1.000
----- -----
This correspondence is defined by linearly interpolating between the points
(0.0, 0.0), (0.1, 0.82), (0.9, 0.98), (1.0).
The score after move 36 is the score (not market value) of the winning move in move 36.
It might have a different function to calculate scores from market values: The function assigns score z to 50% market value, z+0.08 to 90% market value and z-0.08 to 10% market value, where z is the (rounded) score after move 35, but at most 0.9 and at least 0.1. Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.
Some More details for the overall game here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
1,000
3.0035. Rb7: Average market value: 0.893843
35. Rb7: score: 0.978769
35. Rg7: Average market value: 0.752009
35. Rg7: score: 0.950402
35. Rh7: Average market value: 0.880056
35. Rh7: score: 0.976011
Winner: 35. Rb7
--------------------
resolution of market 34. bxa5:
resolution score: 0.978769
corresponding market value: 0.893843
probabilistically rounded: 90%
bad moves that might change game result or make it last longer.
There will always be some of those, and with different degrees of “badness”. Do you have something specific in mind that would be enabled by this particular move, but not the others?
@ChristopherRandles in all three mate-in-10 lines, I see white allows black to promote, but that’s only because black gets there a move behind when the queen-rook mating combination is underway and black’s promoted queen can’t help. But white doesn’t really need to do it so close to the edge, can spend a move or two killing the g pawn, it’d just be a mate in 11 or 12.
@deagol If the rook is next to the black king and needs to move there can be lots of bad moves - all the white K and P moves (and some R blunder movers) whereas if it is far away there are at most 4 sacrifice rook moves. That is what I am thinking for the moment, later there could be Q sacrifice moves to worry about.
@deagol Last answer probably wasn't right. However, one particular concern with b7 might be
35 Rb7 c5
36 a6 kc6
37 a7 ?? or 36/7 f4 ?? (then a7) or ... though f4 is a risk with all of the current moves.
Just seems less risky with 35 Rh7
@ChristopherRandles yeah, if we’re going for the shortest mate there will always be do-or-die moves like that. By playing it extremely safe the game would take a bit longer.
I think we must play it smart, leveraging the incentives built into this structure, trusting that the system will work to make it as costly as we can for a whale to force a bad move. Take away their profit motivation and all they’re left with is a dubious, nihilistic boast “just because I can” mana destruction for them, which we honest bettors would take advantage of and profit from.
@ChristopherRandles also keep in mind we have one of the biggest whales on our side, at least for now. At this moment their interests align with white winning, and switching to the other side seems quite costly for them right now.
To address your specific concern:
concern with b7 might be
35 Rb7 c5
36 a6 kc6
37 a7 ?? or 36/7 f4 ??
Sure those are blunders for move 37, but just as bad would be 35. Rh7 g4 36. Rc7/Rd7/Re7 sacs the rook a move earlier. On the other hand, after 35. Rb7 c5 36. a6 Kc6 we have a ton of easy choices for mate in 7 (counting from move 37), which is one move faster than right now.