Embedding the market into itself so you can see the history of probabilities:
What will white (Manifold) play in move 30?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf828. Kd2 Kf7 29. Re1 Kg7
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000
3.00Moves by average probability:
0.312980 Re7+
0.237680 Re5
0.193414 a4
0.116237 Re6
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pick a number between 1 and 999999995 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-222641273] Re7+, Re5
[222641274-398191902] Re7+, a4
[398191903-522651215] Re5, a4
[522651216-638556174] Re7+, Re5, a4
[638556175-739124957] Re7+, Re6
[739124958-810175921] Re5, Re6
[810175922-871154706] Re7+, Re5, Re6
[871154707-926883741] a4, Re6
[926883741-999999995] other
Hash of the complete table:
59820b5cc2d9639ead14594cbf2448fc82de83fdd29138e5dd4a433d23eeef56
The objectives to a fast resolution seem to be:
1 - Getting past the a5 pawn to allow for a quick queen promotion
2 - Keeping the h5 pawn from promoting which really means keeping the black king away from h2
RE5 accomplishes both, attacking a5 (which black can only delay with c5) and slowing the king from advancing towards h2.
@marnet I’m betting SF3 misses c5 which makes a4 faster than Re5. No need to worry about black’s h pawn promoting, can’t happen unless white plays a couple of really bad blunders.
@deagol a4 is a good move even if black responds with c5. Re7+ just looks like a throwaway move since c7 has to be the least problematic piece on the board and the king can easily avoid a second check.
This is the fastest win (should appeal to @harfe paying a bit less in subsidies), the threat (engines are a bit slow to see it) is 30. b4! clearing the path for promotion on the a file. So black’s only way to delay that would be c5, and I bet SF3 misses it.
Paradoxically, it’s also the most exciting for both teams as focusing on promoting their a pawn (fastest queen delivers fastest mate) requires white to not waste time dealing with black’s pawns advancing, which eventually comes down to a couple single-move, win-or-lose situations (so it should also appeal to NO holders or swing-traders in the main market hoping to flip it by going all in on one of those).
But I guess @jack wont mind making more moves than necessary (thus collecting those subsidies) commanding white’s mighty rook around gobbling up all the black pawns before even thinking about mating black. And I can’t prevent him from doing as he pleases, at least not on my own.