[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 30. Re5, what is the score after move 31?
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 30. Re5, what is the score after move 31?
4
110Ṁ127
resolved May 8
Resolved
N/A

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf8 28. Kd2 Kf7 29. Re1 Kg7

The other candidate move is 30. Re7+

The conditional market for the other move is here:



If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 31. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 31 is NOT necessarily the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 31. Instead, the score depends on the last-4-hour-average of the market value of the winning market in move 31, and the precise dependence will be described in the conditional move markets for move 31.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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predictedYES 1y

30. Re5: Average market value: 0.884912

30. Re5: score: 0.884912

30. Re7+: Average market value: 0.885494

30. Re7+: score: 0.885494

Winner: 30. Re7+

predictedYES 1y

“the precise dependence will be described in the conditional move markets for move 31”

I know you’ve shared elsewhere the intention is to center the market for move 31 around the score after this market +/-0.08 (probability in 31 of 50%+/-40% corresponds to score of z30+/-0.08), and I trust you enough to know you will not rugpull us here, but the above as written may seem to others/newcomers like too much uncertainty for this market to be this near 90%. Like, the criteria above would not be contradicted if the move 31 market descriptions say “the score after this market is 0.1*(1-prob)” despite that being an obviously flawed transformation.

predictedYES 1y

@deagol yes sorry. I was doing it quickly and didn't have time to write a good explanation.

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