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MANIFOLD
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 19: What will white play?
8
Ṁ560Ṁ358
resolved Apr 18
100%69%
Bb2
13%Other
7%
Rc4
3%
Bd2
2%
Be3
6%
a4

What will white (Manifold) play in move 19?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5

market for previous move:


For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

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@harfe your random number is: 417271835

Salt: 5tWOccUZBhpGAwJJlYRA, round: 2875373 (signature 87f7692b3124d8fa2f2a10b66384a1c5a6131cb1e9d0766caa0cbab9f03560dbd4ddc4e5d3dd896ea6e1f0d47970d55f0bb2dfe74b3a15dbcce48dfee87344c3e2d3c6d831387744d4392994c9ba520733b9256f3440e193c94a3212b5653085)

@FairlyRandom Bb2 and a4

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999992, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2875371 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2875373, salt: 5tWOccUZBhpGAwJJlYRA.

@FairlyRandom 999999992

Moves by average probability:

0.691730 Bb2

0.066522 Rc4

0.061368 a4

0.022956 Bd2

0.016993 Be3

pick a number between 1 and 999999992 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-289845610] Bb2, Rc4

[289845611-556930393] Bb2, a4

[556930394-673897052] Bb2, Rc4, a4

[673897053-773007320] Bb2, Bd2

[773007321-846285999] Bb2, Be3

[846286000-884325101] Bb2, Rc4, Bd2

[884325102-918408335] Bb2, a4, Bd2

[918408335-999999992] other

Hash of the complete table:

686a5f7b445fed87f49dba63b654f699011e0f42192c1b255e1b05ccb679b169

Expect delays