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MANIFOLD
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 18: What will white play?
6
Ṁ580Ṁ766
resolved Apr 15
100%1.0%
Kd1
25%Other
71%
Rc4
0.1%
Qg4
0.0%
Qh5
0.1%
Rg4
0.1%
Rd4
0.1%
Rf4
1.1%
Qxh5+
0.1%
Kd2
0.2%
Bd2
0.1%
Qd1
1.1%
Be3

What will white (Manifold) play in move 18?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5

market for previous move:

[TODO]

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

Market context
Chess
FairlyRandom
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https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-4cdd3543f3c0 (Rc4)
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-8be0fe253dab (Kd1)

@harfe your random number is: 63898795

Salt: JWw10MTatyZOKlq9jgGJ, round: 2866815 (signature a03bd5359adf3cb14cc202f98208e49f77ce56c3779830aaacb4ef3e59242aa0244428a65ccd66a83bb87267ff42b4950cca9de96d011bb82a49a15d58c90e3c52aea748fd28982c55487e48ed74c1219d42e32dd2c64c80a96ada9b71cc1940)

@FairlyRandom seems like Rc4 and Kd1

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999886, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2866813 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2866815, salt: JWw10MTatyZOKlq9jgGJ.

@FairlyRandom 999999886

Moves by average probability:

0.711276 Rc4

0.020877 Kd1

0.016901 Kd2

0.013122 Qxh5+

0.012978 Bd2

0.011544 Rf4

0.011178 Rd4

0.010815 Rg4

0.010080 Qg4

0.006454 Qd1

0.002293 Qh5 (removed)

0.002025 Be3

pick a number between 1 and 999999886 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-132779849] Rc4, Kd1

[132779850-240205142] Rc4, Kd2

[240205143-323560507] Rc4, Qxh5+

[323560508-406000366] Rc4, Bd2

[406000367-479315689] Rc4, Rf4

[479315690-550303761] Rc4, Rd4

[550303762-618979231] Rc4, Rg4

[618979232-682979631] Rc4, Qg4

[682979632-723937998] Rc4, Qd1

[723937999-739587533] Rc4, Kd1, Kd2

[739587534-752429996] Rc4, Be3

[752429997-764360276] Rc4, Kd1, Qxh5+

[764360277-776151823] Rc4, Kd1, Bd2

[776151824-786571033] Rc4, Kd1, Rf4

[786571034-796643185] Rc4, Kd1, Rd4

[796643186-806371631] Rc4, Kd1, Rg4

[806371632-815827310] Rc4, Kd2, Qxh5+

[815827311-825172897] Rc4, Kd2, Bd2

[825172898-834210030] Rc4, Kd1, Qg4

[834210031-842466771] Rc4, Kd2, Rf4

[842466771-999999886] other

Hash of the complete table:

5445419a2e8941472cb2a889f2da52f18f73db9e026e50c5ca57fd2a27e770b4

@1941159478 invalid notation

@deagol All right, all right, thanks, I made a new answer with all the bells and whistles. It looks like a really great move too now, we capture a piece and check at the same time.

@1941159478 awesome, good luck getting it to win if randombot picks it