[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 16: What will white play?

Ṁ540Ṁ159

resolved Apr 10

100%76%

15%Other

1.9%

Qd3

0.0%

Qf1

0.6%

1.4%

Kf1

What will white (Manifold) play in move 16?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8

market for previous move:

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

Market context

Chess

FairlyRandom

Manifold plays chess

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https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-44aa0f0f0680 d3
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-44aa0f0f0680 a3

@harfe your random number is: 290847356

Salt: nVEu6ASEmntRZCL83rCW, round: 2853860 (signature b2ea620f168957a60bfa0268b6fa5f6bb2a9fa613ffa5114d5f27b4ba0c418df214893914e9b1879b015a7315693212c046d771dd3d63c88fc981520c81cea57aa1e4020affe4eb9d5571cb91f16e55865cd5274f60ad5733fa6aabdb98fd96c)