Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5
The other candidate move is 16. a3
The conditional market for the other move is here:
If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 17. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 17 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 17.
Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.
More details for the overall game here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ6 | |
| 2 | Ṁ3 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 |
Reminder for this (the best) move’s beneficiaries, @WinstonOswaldDrummond @tailcalled @MartinRandall and @ElmerFudd
It’s up to you how much you want to defend your investment in /harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-move-16-what against the only two beneficiaries of the worse move winning, @Jack2 (@jack‘s alt) and @harfe. Just know that both are well capitalized and have been feisty defenders of their interests in previous moves.
As you can see, @jack has set up limit walls here and on the other move’s conditional market, to make sure the worse move wins unless those walls get taken down and the last 4h average price here is kept higher than there. In case this wins, any losses (or profits) incurred in the other conditional will be returned as it resolves N/A.
Even though I will (slightly) benefit in the free response with either move winning, I do have a slight bias for this d3, again, the best for white. Therefore I’ve chipped away about half of @jack‘s defenses (I know he will put up new ones if needed), and I will help some more if I see some collaboration here, but I will not escalate beyond my slight profit bias and my sense of this move’s merits against the other, which isn’t much against the sheer power that the manipulators vying for the worse move can muster.
Yet still, whatever position anyone ends up with in the winning market for this move could come back to bite them in the next, as its resolution depends on the score after that, next move. Note, too, @jack has flipped hard from NO to YES in the main game market for white winning, which must mean something.
In short, it’s up to you, but don’t go crazy unless you’re willing to fight the dragon, not only here but most critically in the next move as well.