What will white (Manifold) play in move 15?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ98 | |
| 2 | Ṁ40 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 |
Moves by average probability:
0.518307 Qf3
0.122692 d3
0.026305 Ra4
pick a number between 1 and 999999999 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-610929774] Qf3, d3
[610929775-860929774] Qf3, d3, Ra4
[860929775-987680591] Qf3, Ra4
[987680592-999999999] d3, Ra4
Hash of the complete table:
f98e471995fb2620ecebcb4d379c0750a9e117a71659f7ea7c0027b35b4e08ee
This is much better, all that space for the queen, protects the rook as well as the weak pawn on f2, but also eyes black's queen which plants the seed for some discovered check tactics later on. Also we leave open the option of the more active d4 instead of the quiet d3 for our next move. Note the pin on black's e5 pawn, SF3 better be careful, their seemingly solid center could collapse at any moment.
Couldn't decide to leave this out or in, it's the second best but objectively inferior. Impedes white's Q mobility including the discomfort of getting pinned by black's Bb4, which black can use to force a queen trade in a few moves, while white needs all the firepower available to get SF3 in a tight spot and force another blunder.