What will white (Manifold) play in move 12?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน65 | |
| 2 | แน56 | |
| 3 | แน13 |
Moves by average probability:
0.245088 d3
0.194564 g4
0.109531 b3
0.013341 f4
0.013279 Rh1
0.013217 Rb1
0.013155 Kd1
0.013093 Kf1
0.013031 d4
0.012969 Qa3
0.012908 Qd3
0.012846 Qxc6
0.012784 Qxe5
0.010621 a3
0.000000 Qb7 (removed)
pick a number between 1 and 999999769 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-220779141] d3, g4
[220779142-336459530] d3, b3
[336459531-422996199] g4, b3
[422996200-495780246] d3, g4, b3
[495780247-509001606] d3, f4
[509001607-522161129] d3, Rh1
[522161130-535258820] d3, Rb1
[535258821-548294683] d3, Kd1
[548294684-561268722] d3, Kf1
[561268723-574180942] d3, d4
[574180943-587031348] d3, Qa3
[587031349-599819944] d3, Qd3
[599819945-612546735] d3, Qxc6
[612546736-625211725] d3, Qxe5
[625211726-635720471] d3, a3
[635720472-645571162] g4, f4
[645571163-655375757] g4, Rh1
[655375758-665134260] g4, Rb1
[665134261-674846675] g4, Kd1
[674846676-684513005] g4, Kf1
[684513005-999999769] other
Hash of the complete table:
d568f8dabf326936abebb84dca07e7d2e641667fd12360495646bb8d1ee2ec34
